European Odyssey
Bhupinder S. Liddar

The entry on May 1, 2004 of 10 countries to the European Union sparked sufficient interest for me to embark on a five-week European odyssey during July-August 2004.

The journey through 14 countries - seven of them for the first time for me, including five of the 10 new EU members: Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, staying an average of two days in each, was done by rented car, train, bus, ferry and only one flight: from Riga to Minsk, Belarus. Europe's efficient public transport system was an ideal opportunity to gauge the mood on the ground through countless conversations with fellow-travellers and an ideal opportunity to observe, absorb, and enjoy the countryside.

Much information and insight was also gained at either lunches or dinners, among them with former Ottawa-based diplomats including, Belgian Ambassador Luc Carbonez and his wife Claire in Leuven, Polish Ambassador Pawel Dobrowolski in Warsaw, Czech Ambassador Vladimir Kotzy and his wife Michaela in Prague and during an overnight stay at the summer place, in Bad Ischl, of Austrian Ambassador Wendelin Ettmayer.  I also had an opportunity to talk on the phone with Stan Opiela, former Counsellor at the Embassy of Slovakia and had lunch in Bratislava with his wife Viera Opiela.

While Europe has experienced considerable political, economic and social transformation since the collapse of the Soviet Union almost 15 years ago, the continent is now poised for yet another dramatic transformation, particularly in the 10 new EU member states. There is little doubt or debate that the entry of 10 new former Soviet-controlled countries into the EU is a watershed in the history of the continent. There is no guarantee what the next decade will bring, but one thing is certain: life will only improve for the majority of the 75 million citizens of the new member states of the EU. If the changes of the last decade are any indicator, the next few years will bring similar and more beneficial changes to the majority of the citizens of the new EU member states.

Is there scepticism and concern among some of the 15 EU member states about taking on additional 10 members? Certainly. There is concern about spending billions of Euros on improving the struggling emerging market economies and on archaic infrastructure of the new member states. But one cannot discount that the expansion of the EU has also provided a huge market for the West. Today, one hardly sees a Russian-made automobile, such as Lada, in the new EU member states. The western manufacturers have taken over the auto market and McDonald's, Pizza Hut and Coca Cola dominate the food scene as do Western designer clothes outlets. Even in Minsk, Belarus, the legendary Russian Gum department store now carries more western manufactured good than Russian. Hip hop music blares from everywhere - the taxis, hotel lobbies, and department stores.  While a formidable Lenin statue sits in downtown Minsk, I did watch the Athens Olympic Games' opening ceremony on CNN in the lobby of Hotel Belarus in Minsk! While political change may be stalled in Belarus, the free market forces seem to be in full swing.

Although border controls still exist between the 10 new and the pre-May 1 EU, and will remain in effect for the transitional period of seven years, before there is a free movement of labour and people, concern remains about the sudden and possibly adverse impact of cheaper labour from the 10 new member states crossing the borders. High unemployment afflicts many of the new EU members.

Then there is, of course, scepticism about the intangibles - for instance, the "mentality" of the new member countries' citizens, who have lived for half a century under totalitarianism: how long will it take for them to be and think like "Europeans"?

The methods being adopted by the EU to speed up the transformation are encouraging. For instance, Poland is to receive 40 billion Euros in the next three years for infrastructure development and capital investment. Needless to say, the EU has its hands full for some time to come. But just as Portugal, Spain and Ireland were integrated and realized the benefits of EU membership; it is likely that the 10 new members will ultimately experience the same. However, there is concern, in the 10 new EU members states, that prices of basic commodities and real estate will likely sky rocket.

Since the end of the Cold War, political institutions have evolved but not without some painful experiences in some former Soviet occupied countries, which are now members of the EU. Political liberalization brought with it economic liberalization. The benefits of economic liberalization may not have been fairly and equally distributed but the net result is a free market economy giving rise to entrepreneurs and providing a choice of goods unheard during the Soviet era. The political transformation to a free democratic society is almost complete. The 732 MPs for the new expanded European Parliament were elected in June, including from the 10 new members states. The transformation - political, economic, and social - has been so total and rapid that the process is irreversible.

One of the questions being raised is whether the EU will become a counterbalance to the USA or continue the trans-Atlantic cooperation? While Poland and Lithuania are staunch pro-US policy proponents, France and Germany are suspected of trying to steer the EU into an independent entity and away from the US sphere of influence.

The EU also has to consider its future relations with NATO. While 11 of the 15 EU countries and eight of the 10 new member states are in NATO, it remains to be seen whether the European Rapid Deployment Force will evolve into an exclusively European military alliance.

Europe, is also going through a significant social transformation because of rapid immigration from Africa and Asia. How to manage immigration is likely to be one of the major challenges, particularly the pre-May I Europe, in the coming years. While Canada may not have all the answers, it is nonetheless an experiment in social engineering, which may be of some value for the Europeans to keep a close eye on.

The transformation taking place in Europe presents tremendous challenges as well as opportunities for Canada's foreign and trade policies. Is Canada ready for these? Is it even on the scene? Canada needs to be more pro-active immediately, if it is to play any role, in the rapidly evolving Europe.

Ottawa
August 31, 2004